We said that Israel was above all an independent force and power. Israel can take whatever position it likes or decides upon


It is clear that Israel did not do number one above and could not because its leaders are NOT independent.


And the time has come for Israel to do the second, strike INDEPENDENTLY against Syria which with Hizbullah is directly threatening Israel


{Debka today}


DEBKAfileExclusive Report June 2, 2012, 7:44 PM (GMT+02:00)

Tags:  Turkey   Hizballah   Israel   Iran   Israel   Scuds   Syrian rebels 
Scud D ground-to-ground missile

Two radical developments arising from the Syrian conflict are revealed by debkafile: In an astonishing about face, Turkey has just turned away from its 14-month support for the anti-Assad revolt alongside the West and made common cause with Russia, i.e. Bashar Assad.  Further exacerbating fears of a “proxy war” involving Israel, Iran and Syria, the Lebanese Hizballah is getting ready to bring its Scud D missiles, which can reach any point in Israel, and other advanced weapons, including anti-air missiles, out of secret storage in Syria and transfer them across the border to Lebanon. Two years ago, Israel issued an ultimatum through Washington that the Scuds would be destroyed if they were moved over to Hizballah’s launching pads in Lebanon.
The Lebanese Shiite group has since kept its most advanced hardware stashed at the Syrian Al Hame and Al Zabadani military bases near Damascus.


Now that Syrian rebel attacks are closing in on Syrian military targets, Tehran and Hizballah leaders are working on plans to get them across into Lebanon without exposing them to Israeli attack.
One plan is to enlist the Palestinian Jihad Islami in the Gaza Strip and exploit a clash over the Scuds’ transfer as a trigger for an all round military offensive against Israel. It would be timed for the moment the Western-Arab intervention in Syria against President Assad crosses the line between covert and overt military action and begins an operation to establish safe zones as bases for rebel operation.
Washington, London and Paris began rushing forward contingency plans for this eventuality upon discovering that Ankara had secretly notified leaders of the rebel Free Syrian Army Thursday, May 31 that it had withdrawn permission for them to launch operations against the Assad regime from Turkish soil.
It was then realized that Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and his Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu had stabbed Western-Arab Syrian policy in the back and moved over to help prop Assad up at the very moment his regime was on the point of buckling under international after-shocks from the systematic massacres of his own people.  
That day, Erdogan’s betrayal was confirmed when Davutoglu announced over Turkish NTV: “We have never advised either the Syrian National Council or the Syrian administration to conduct an armed fight, and we will never do so.” He added: “The Syrian people will be the driving force that eventually topples the Syrian regime. Assad will leave as a result of the people’s will.”


This was precisely the view voiced this week by Russian President Vladimir Putin, when he spoke out against violent rebellion, military intervention and sanctions to topple the Syrian ruler.
For the time being, the pro-Assad Moscow-Tehran front, bolstered now by Ankara, has got the better of Western and Arab policies for Syria.  Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Bashar Assad and Hassan Nasrallah have drawn encouragement for advancing to their next step: to confront the United States and Israel with another accomplished fact, the deployment of Scuds aimed at Israel from Lebanon.

Failing to curtail their transfer across the Syrian-Lebanese border in compliance with its 2010 ultimatum will seriously shake Israel’s deterrent capabilities and undercut its military credibility against its enemies, including Iran.
If on the other hand, the Obama administration again holds Israel back from military action, this time to destroy the long-range Scuds, Bashar Assad, Hizballah and Tehran will be awarded a winning hand – and not only in Syria.




I take that as given. Every piece of news that comes across on the BBC my first presumption is always that it is false. This is the correct position for a socialist revolutionary to take.


On we stand in the most uncopmpromising way in defence of the Jews, in defence of Israel, that Israel must urgently strike the Iranian fascist regime and with Nuclear weapons if it is seen as necessary to defend Israel.


But we cannot forgive Jewish leaders who have not defended Gaghbo, Ben Ali, Mubarak and Gadhafi with everything that the Jews have got.


None of those leaders can be said to be friendly to Israel. That is not the point. The point being that they were also opposed to the Sharia Law in their countries, and as the policy of the US and Europe has become clearer to ujs, they were therefore opposed to the Sharia/US Alliance.


In political life you do not have to be a friend of somebody to defend them.


The whole history of the last two decades of the life of Trotsky was that he sought to make every alliance against Hitler and Mussolini.


But the present Sharia in alliance with Obama and the EU leaders is a worse threat to the world than even the Nazis were.


That is why I cannot forgive the take by debka on this so-called massacre, and I cannot forgive Belman of Israpundit for not standing on his hind legs like a real man and warniong about how similar this looks to the conspiraciers against the Serbs.


I follow with 2 items, first my challenge to Belman on Israpundit this morning and secondly the atrocious debka take on the massacre. And on Assad.





It is not at all that the Jews are gullible. It is that the Jewish leaders, especially in America, have been conditioned by their own (American) ruling class with its great powers of persuasion (for example Ted Belman of this Israpundit conditioned through his years as a LAWYER, to follow whatever garbage the elites throw at the population through the Media.

I was not there. I cannot say what happened.

However I have listened to the BBC and the reporting on this “massacre” follows the pattern of the reporting of the Srebrenica “massacre”.

Except that they have become more bold since 1995 because then they did not report a massacre until 2 months after the event.

The Irish times has reported on Srebrenica many hundreds of times since 1995 but in the first 2 months there was no mention at all of a massacre.

Now they can put this type of news story in circulation very fast and nobody bats an eyelid.

I can handle all of that but what I cannot handle is Jewish leaders like Belman who toe the line like any other gullible Media dimwit.

The reason they can put it out so fast is largely due to people like Belman and it is worse in his case because he has had a chance to understand how the Media in Yugoslavia worked.

An alternative theory, with the merest tiny bit of reflection, and I am no expert at all, but the whole point is I do not need great expertise, I just need to reflect back on Yugoslavia, on Qana, on Jenin, on El Dura etc..

1. Who benefits? Assad does not benefit at all because he is interested in keeping the shaky Russians on board with him.
2. Clearly benefit are those who call for HUMANITARIAN Intervention such as the CIA, the sections around Obama like Rice who are for Humanitarian Interventions everywhere, Joe Lieberman…and Ted Belman? But why the latter?

An alternative theory thinking only of the practicals of this specific massacre story:

We know that Al Qaeda is there and we know their ruthlessness.

We know the CIA and SAS are there and they would do anything for political global strategy.

We know that Al Jazeera and Kuwait are there and we saw just how ruthless they were in Libya in murdering not a hundred but tens of thousands of black Africans.

We have experience of the Qana affair where the same Islamists raided the nearby morgues in order to locate the very bodies that they later had actors dig or pull out of the rubble, in the case on one child pulled out time after time. THESE TYPES WOULD DO ANYTHING. THAT IS THE WHOLE ESSENCE OF THE EXPOSURES BY SPENCER ON JIHADWATCH AND BY PAMELA ON ATLAS SHRUGS.
And again on the BbC this morning these Antisemites focus on CHILDREN.

A lady from Save the Children (note a lady to give the maternal touch) was calling for humanitarian intervention.

And Belman, a Jewish leader through Israpundit in America and Israel, and a man who networks with Eidelberg et al, falls for all of this.

This makes me think that the issue is Assad and Jewish leadership opportunism devoid of principle, you know sell your granny fro a penny.

Assad is in league with Hizbullah, Hamas and Iran. So Belman is quite incapable of calling for a defence of Assad from the forces of Empire/Sharia.
Belman cannot act because he leaves out a fact I raised a year ago which is: defence of Assad does not mean lowering the guard against Assad by Israel.

Nothing to stop defending Assad. Nothing to stop Israel from striking against Assad if it needs to. But that entails seeing Israel as an independent force in the world.


They have always and will always see Israel as an adjunct to the US which has brainwashed them.
Nor does defence of Gaghbo, Ben Ali, Gadhafi or Mubarak ever stop Israel from hitting Iran with a Nuclear Weapon to save the Jews.

Only the can take these positions and only that organization can become the defender of the Jews in the long term consistent sense.




Assad’s latest massacre at al-Houla

The wanton slaughter by Syrian forces of 92 confirmed victims, 32 of them children under ten, at the Homs village of Al-Houla Friday, May 25, was the most horrifying atrocity in the Middle East this week, but not the only one: In Sanaa, six days ago, al Qaeda’s suicide bombers, having penetrated Yemeni military ranks, detonated two tons of explosives at a parade rehearsal killing more than 100 soldiers and civilians and injuring 400.
Yet, according to the New York Times, after 15 months of bloodshed, President Barack Obama is working on the Yemenbi model for a plan to push Bashar Assad out of office, while “leaving remnants of his government in place. The Yemeni model replaced President Ali Abdullah in Sanaa with his vice president Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi.
Whereas US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton condemned Assad and his “cronies” for the al-Houla massacre, the “Yemen plan” would leave in place those very “cronies,” including Assad’s close relatives, who are responsible for massacres not only in al-Houla, but also in Homs, Hama, Idlib and Deraa, to name a few.
According to the NYT, when Obama tested the idea with Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev at the Group-of-8 summit in Camp David last Saturday, May 19, the Russian prime minister raised the example of “Mubarak in a cage,” referring to Mubarak’s court appearance at his trial. Obama then “countered with Yemen, and the indication was, yes, this was something we could talk about.”
This scrap of dialogue lifted the veil from a key aspect of Obama’s broader Middle East program and the role he has assigned Moscow for carrying it through. This role was first revealed exclusively by DEBKA-Net-Weekly 542 of May 25 which reported that the US president is acting to bring the Russians into a partnership for securing deals on the Iranian nuclear program and the Syrian crisis.
So far, his venture has had two results:

1.  The Iranian nuclear impasse and the outcome of the Syrian civil war have been more tightly integrated than ever before.
2.  Any deal reached by the US, Russia and Iran on the two issues would have to entail a carving-up of Middle East influence among those three powers.
As for Israel’s role in the ongoing bargaining, we also disclosed in debkafile of May 19 that Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak had agreed to stand back for Barack Obama to put his interim deal with Iran to the test. Despite their reservations, they decided to go along with it after receiving assurances from the White House that Iranian violations would result in the immediate termination of negotiations and bring military action forward as the sole remaining option for stopping a nuclear Iran.

The US president promised to put his accord with Israel before the G-8 summit. And he did.
But for now there is no deal although Israel, in effect, gave Obama six months’ grace to explore his diplomatic initiative with Vladimir Putin and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei before turning back to the military option.
But as the days pass, major hurdles are piling up in the path of what some observers hail as Obama’s “Grand Bargain,” and others his “Grand Failure:” The Six-power talks with Iran have failed to persuade the ayatollahs to give up uranium enrichment up to weapons-grade; the world wants actions not words to halt the brutal massacres in Syria; rising bloodshed in Yemen continues to cripple the country. Obama’s hopes of a crisis-free six months for electioneering in peace look more and more like pipe-dreams.
The bargaining with Tehran is likely to stay stalled because Iran’s leaders take Obama’s deal with Israel as a six-month respite from a military threat. So why should they hurry in May or even June to reach a compromise with America on its demand to stop 20 percent uranium enrichment?
Bashar Assad and his army chiefs likewise feel US hands are tied by Obama’s hopes of a breakthrough with Iran and they can safely carry on with their “unspeakable crimes” for the next six months under the Iranian-Russian umbrella. Words however strong will not discourage him from sending tanks to crush every last opponent and their children.

And Israel, seeing the US president lurching from one bargaining position to another to keep his initiative afloat, shifts uncertainly in and out of its unwritten commitment to withhold military action against Iran until November.

None of the parties involved in granting Obama his six-month grace period, whether Vladimir Putin, Ali Khamenei, Binyamin Netanyahu or Bashar Assad, can be sure that he will in fact be returned to the Whie House in November. And even if he is, how much will be left of his Grand Bargain.


Netanyahu, Barak refuse to see US official


with negative report on Baghdad talks

DEBKAfileExclusive Report May 26, 2012, 10:25 AM (GMT+02:00)

State's Wendy Sherman, senior US delegate to world power talks with Iran
State’s Wendy Sherman, senior US delegate to world power talks with Iran

The rupture between the US and Israel over Iran’s nuclear program widened further Friday, May 25  when Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak decided not to be available to hear the briefing brought to Jerusalem from Baghdad by Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman who headed the US delegation to the Six Power talks. The report she delivered to National Security Adviser Yaakov Amidror and Foreign Ministry Director-General Rafi Barak was that no progress had been achieved in Baghdad due to Iran’s refusal to budge on its “right” to enrich uranium at low (3.5-5 percent) or high (20 percent) levels or shut down the Fordo nuclear plant near Qom.
Although the participants agreed to reconvene in Moscow in three weeks, the Iranian delegation stressed there would be no progress until the US and the other five world powers (Britain, France, Russia, Germany and China) recognized Iran’s absolute “right” as a signatory of the Non-Proliferation Treaty to enrich uranium.

Meanwhile, every day spent on diplomacy is thoroughly exploited by Iran to zip ahead with its nuclear plans. The Vienna-based UN nuclear watchdog (IAEA)’s quarterly report released Friday reveals that since February Iran almost doubled its stockpile of more highly enriched uranium which is close to weapons grade from 73.4 to 145 kilograms.
The centrifuges at the Fordo facility, built into the side of a mountain, rose to over 500 from 300 in the last report.

Using the IAEA figures, debkafile calculates that if Fordo goes on producing 23.9 kilograms of 20-percent enriched uranium per month, Iran will by the end of December have accumulated 336 kilograms of near-weapons quality uranium.
The IAEA also reported that Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to less than 5 per cent grew to 6,232 kilograms from 5,451 reported in February.

Its inspectors recorded “the presence of particles” of 27 per cent-enriched uranium at Fordo. Iran maintained the particles were a result of “technical reasons beyond the operator’s control.”

The IAEA report was released a day after talks between Tehran and the six powers ended without progress.
Iran’s senior delegate Saeed Jalili declared that his government would never accept the Washington-ruled distinction between two categories of nations – one permitted and the other forbidden to enrich uranium. He claimed this was against international treaties.

Friday, the Washington Post quoted Mohammad Hoseyn Moussavian of Princeton University as revealing that in 2004, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, “I would resign if for any reason Iran is deprived of its rights to enrichment.”

Moussavian is presented as an Iranian academic visiting Princeton to lecture and write a book on the Iranian nuclear issue. debkafile reveals that he was the contact man in one of the direct, back-channel negotiations taking place in Paris between the White House and Khamenei. His words therefore were intended to carry weight as a reminder to Obama that the supreme leader, like the US president, intended to come out of their dialogue strengthened – not undermined. And therefore, for both their sakes, Washington must endorse Iran’s “right to enrichment.”
Tehran presented a second ultimatum for the nuclear talks to continue: phased sanctions relief, starting with the postponement of the European Union’s oil embargo scheduled for July 1 until the end of negotiations and the reconnection of Iranian banks to the SWIFT international money transfer system.

The gap between Israel and the Obama administration widened in the course of Washington’s direct, secret give-and-take with Tehran. In early April, Defense Minister Barak reported that Israel offered some compromise on the enrichment issue. debkafile disclosed at the time that Israel had informed Washington of its approval of a “1,000 formula.” Iran would be permitted to activate 1,000 centrifuges for enrichment and keep 1,000 kilograms of 3.5-per cent enriched uranium. 

The Netanyahu government backtracked when this concession was used by US officials as a lever for further accommodations with Iran.
The direct US-Iran channel and the second round of Six Power talks with Iran have clearly left the standoff over Iran’s nuclear solidly in place: Iran stands by its right to enrich uranium up to weapons grade, the US stands by diplomacy, however hopeless, for resolving the controversy, while Israel demands a time limit for negotiations. Its military option was put back on the table for so long as Iran’s enrichment centrifuges continue spinning at top speed is totally on the side of the Jews and Israel in this issue of Iranian Nuclear Bombs.


We say that the Iranian regime is as much antisemitic as was Hitler.


In fact there is a direct line. The man who led the Bosnian Muslims against Milosevic and Mladic was called Izetbegovic. His history goes back to the Holocaust. He was a member of the Muslim Brotherhood in Bosnia during the years of the Holocaust. We do not know how many members of the Muslim Brotherhood there were in Bosnia during the Holocaust, but we do know the name of one, that was Hajj Amin el Husseini, who was the chief organizer of the Holocaust in the Balkans. In other words joint membership of the pro-Hitler Muslim Brotherhood. They may have been the only two in Bosnia.


Move forward just a little, to the early 1990s, and Iran was working with the US State Department and the US Army and Air Force to airlift Nazi Arab Muslims into Bosnia to fight the Serbs. They carried out many beheadings, thus anticipating what happened to Daniel Pearl.


This was Jihad against the Serbs, with the direct help of the US ruling classes.


Now there is a Jihad against Israel and it takes the form of the Iranian Nuclear Bomb.


You can see an antisemite immediately. He or she will offer no interest in what Iran is getting up to in Fordo inside that mountain.


This apparent “naivety” and sometimes even impatience with the issue being raised has at its root Antisemitism.


Some of the worst offenders in this regard are those who claim to talk about defence of the Serbs re Srebrenica, like Harman and Peterson, while they are defending the Nazi Iranian regime and its bomb building AGAINST JEWS.


Of course, this is Antisemitic and Nazi because this bomb building in Iran has got only the one target and that target is Israel.


So what is the future?/ What to do?


The answer is that no step can be taken without putting into place the alternative leadership which has to be


It is necessary to defend Mladic unconditionally. The Serbs had a full right to use whatever methods it decided to use. In the war against the Nazis by the freedom fighters opposed to the Nazis (The resistance) nobody has ever, i mean ever, criticised the methods of The Resistance to Hitler.


Same with the Serbs today. Same with the Jews of Israel today.


We on defend unconditionally each and every method od struggle which the Jews use in order to survive against these enemies.




May 23, 2012…this is a fateful day for the world.


The world in which I live is inhabited by really strange people (The Media) who are desparately trying to keep the ordinary folk from understanding what is happening (Reality)


Well the reality is that Israel is going to go to war with Iran and the reality also is that stands in the warlike and just tradition of Leon Trotsky and we will be the only ones on the left who will stand unconditionally with Israel.


Obama is sympathetic to Iran and to Islam. Some European leaders (Sarkozy was) were worried about Iran and the Nuclear Bomb, but Europe is in crisis and these leaders cannot focus. Also in everything the Europeans are deep down Antisemitic and they blame Jews subconsciously for Iran. So they hesitate in front of Iran.


Israel cannot hesitate. If it hesitates in front of Iran then Israel will be wiped out. Dirty Nuclear bombs can be let off. Iran will have the material and they will have the weapons to deliver (Arab suicide killers)


This is why in the end Israel and its leaders can take only so much bull shit from Obama. Obama does lie and if your whole people are threatened, especially the Jews, the lies after a time do not work.


And this is why when Ehud Barak spoke the following (In Hebrew but so there was no mistake had an English translation on hand) then this means that war on Iran from Israel is just so inevitable.




“There is no need to tell us what to do, and we have no reason to panic. Israel is very, very strong, but we do know that the Iranians are accomplished chess players and will try to achieve nuclear capabilities. Our position has not changed. The world must stop Iran from becoming nuclear. All options remain on the table.”


see full analysis of the background on


All options on the table means we will not wait until Obama is reelected in Nopvember.





It is based on antisemitism, hatred of Jews. Along with that it is based on the Islam programme of conquering the world for Islam.


When Islam emerged it was not a Fascist movement because we insist that Fascism is a word to be used only in the context of Fascism as a modern and contemporary phenomenon.


Leon Trotsky wrote most about Fascism, analysing it from every angle, and insisted that Fascism was a method of rule which is connected to the historical decline of the Capitalist system.


Robert Spencer has produced a brilliant and timely book which insists that Islam as a method of thought and practice was patched together as a system AFTER the Arab conquests. It was quite specific to those conquests.


But everything changes and adapts to new circumstances.


Iran and Islam must be connected consciously to the present terminal decline in world capitalism


There are forces now emerging within capitalism itself which feel threatened by this new form of Iranian/Hamas/Hizbullah fascism. It depends on Israel to act and on the Jews to act to defend themselves.


The key, and the difficult part for Israel and the Jews, is that they must act on many fronts. Israel is threatened on all of these fronts.


  1. Obama who is essentially antisemitic and who also puts his electioneering before the safety of millions of Jews
  2. The Power’s programme of “Responsible to Protect” which is also the source of the New Fascism


The following notes by Debka make it clear that there ARE forces in the world feeling seriously threatened by Iran Fascism. But Israel must act and we on the outside must stand up and be counted in defence of the Jews once more:




DEBKAfileExclusive Report April 26, 2012, 5:30 PM (GMT+02:00)

Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz meets top US soldier Gen. Martin Dempsey in Washington

Israel Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu acted Thursday, April 26, to correct the damaging impression of divided and uncertain perceptions of the Iranian nuclear threat left by statements delivered in the last two days by himself and Defense Minster Ehud Barak.
Israel’s chief of staff Gen. Benny Gantz rallied to the task with an unambiguous comment that “other countries have readied their armed forces for a potential strike against Iran’s nuclear sites to keep Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The military force is ready. Not only our forces but other forces as well,” he said without elaborating.

“We all hope it will not be necessary to use this force, but we are absolutely sure of its existence.”
debkafile reports from Washington that Gen. Gantz’s words were seen in US official circles as the strongest affirmation yet from Jerusalem that Israel has partners for a direct attack on Iran’s nuclear sites.
It was also an attempt by the chief of staff to erase the question mark he placed in a previous comment over Iran’s resolve to attain a nuclear weapon.  

Wednesday, April 25, debkafile reported widespread criticism on the Israeli street and in military circles of the mixed and conflicting messages coming from top officials with regard to the Iranian peril. Netanyahu also responded to the criticism in person by declaring in a TV interview, “Iran hasn’t stopped its program …the centrifuges are spinning as we speak.”


Antisemitism in countries in Europe and the antisemitism of Obama provides the cover for a great killing of the Jews in Israel.

This is a most serious warning to the world. It now emerges from this debka article that we have been concentrating on the wrong thing. We have been thinking of a rocket attacking Israel with a nuclear bomb on board.

But what debka has made clear here is that iran has the enriched uranium on hand, and that the trigger facility is on hand also. Hence Hizbullah on the border with Israel, essentially protected by UN forces, can explode dirty bombs against Israel.

But that would harm Arabs also, some antisemites may argue. The answer to that is the concept of suicide bombing. That specific concept makes that thought irrelevant.

Jew hatred is what drove Hitler and Jew hatred is what drove Hajj Amin el Husseini.

As Israeli leaders wrangle over Iran, a new US spy agency will deal with Tehran
DEBKAfileExclusive Report April 25, 2012, 5:38 PM (GMT+02:00)

Some fear they’ve missed the boat.

Israeli leaders were harshly criticized on the eve of Israel’s 64th Independence Day for too much speechifying and no real action against a nuclear Iran, whereas the US in contrast finally made a move by establishing a new Pentagon spy agency for gathering intelligence inside Iran. April 24 and 25, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak addressed memorial ceremonies for the fallen, they reiterated the same old “Israel will not permit Iran to acquire nuclear arms” – a remark which the Israeli street has stopped taking seriously. Many members of military and intelligence circles are quoted by debkafile as believing that Israel may have waited too long and, along with the US, lost the initiative.
Jerusalem and Washington are still at odds on Iran, but the theme of their dispute has shifted. It is no longer about Iran’s timeline for building a bomb, but what kind. They agree that Tehran will not possess advanced nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles capable of penetrating the US and Israeli missile defenses any time soon. Israel is now worried about more primitive devices like the ones in the North Korean and Pakistani arsenals which Israeli believes are in the final stages of constructions.
The question in Israeli intelligence circles is this: Why is the impending North Korean nuclear test considered by the US, Japan and South Korea a major menace while no one seems to care about devices identical to the one Pyongyang plans to explode on the way to operational capability.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Strategic Affairs Moshe Ya’alon said publicly earlier this month that by the end of 2012, Iran would have a dirty bomb.
His disclosure drew no reactions, although it was a warning. A dirty bomb combines radioactive material with conventional explosives. Its chief danger is the spread of radioactive contamination. Cruder and cheaper to producer than a nuclear bomb, counter-terror agencies have long appreciated that it is easily transferred to terrorists. Ya’alon’s warning therefore means that Iran may soon be able to transfer dirty bombs to the Lebanese Hizballah units sitting on Israel’s northern border and the Palesinian Hamas and Jihad Islami in Gaza.
The Weekly Standard edition for publication on April 30 wrote the following sentence: “The supreme leader and his guards can have a nuclear weapon in their hands in as little as 43 days, provided Iran’s nuclear scientists have mastered the manufacture of a nuclear trigger – technically much less difficult than enrichment.”

The UN nuclear watchdog in Vienna and US intelligence officials have reported tests on nuclear materials conducted in recent weeks at the Parchin site near Tehran, to which access has been denied UN inspectors.

In Washington, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announced was the formation of a new Pentagon spy agency called the Defense Clandestine Service. Defense Department sources said the new organization would expand the military’s intelligence and secret war efforts outside war zones in areas insufficiently covered until now, indicating deep penetration inside hostile territory, primarily Iran.

Other sources point out that by creating a new in-house Pentagon spy agency, Panetta and President Obama demonstrated their opinion of the quality of intelligence they were receiving from the CIA, of which the defense secretary was director until recently.

Iran already had enough uranium enriched to 20 percent to make one nuclear bomb – and before long, enough for two nuclear devices

Thanks to Israpundit

IDF intelligence chief: Israel’s next war will see heavy casualties

Israel Matzav

In his final briefing to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, outgoing military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin warned that Israel’s next war would take longer, be fought on more fronts and would cause more casualties (God forbid) than its two previous wars – Operation Cast Lead and the Second Lebanon War .

Syria, particularly, posed a greated military obstacle to Israel than at any time in the past three decades, Yadlin said, having amassed advanced Russian-built antiaircraft missiles that seriously limited the operational freedom of the Israel Air Force.

While Syria had failed to acquire Russian S-300 missiles, seen by Israel as the greatest potential threat to its aircraft, Damascus had improved its defense systems enough to push the military balance with Israel “back to the 1970s”, Yadlin said. 

In 1973, Israel came close to defeat by a suprise Syrian attack before eventually emerging victorious in the Yom Kippur War.

Yadlin also hinted at Israel’s involvement in attacking a Syrian nuclear facility in September 2007. That strike has been widely attributed to Israel, but the government has never officially taken responsibility for the operation.

The veteran soldier, who turns 60 next year, told the committee that during his position as MI chief he had contended with two enemy nuclear programs – apparently a reference to Iran and Syria.

“I’ve seen three defense ministers, two chiefs of staff and two prime ministers come and go, I’ve been through two wars and I’ve contended with two nuclear programs of enemy states,” Yadlin said, summing up the last years of his career.

“I headed a group of thousands of people working 24 hours a day to collect information that the enemy was not volunteering, information that had to be extracted from difficult places,” he added.

Yadlin also warned of a growing threat from the Iranian nuclear program, saying Iran now had enough highly enriched uranium to build a bomb.

That’s not all Iran has. Yadlin also told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Israel had detected two new nuclear facilities in Iran (read the headline – the text doesn’t seem to have much to do with it).

But perhaps the most frightening part of Yadlin’s briefing was his assessment of a future conflict.

“The next conflict, even if it is limited in scale,” warned the former IAF general, “will be much bigger, much broader, and with many more casualties than we saw in Operation Cast Lead or the Second Lebanon War.”

Such a conflict, predicted the 59-year old Yadlin, will be played out on two or more fronts; moreover, Israel’s enemies “believe that the only way to overcome Israel’s deterrence is through longrange missile fire and improving air defense capabilities.”

Pulling no punches, Yadlin warned that the cutting-edge anti-aircraft system that Syria has purchased from Russia could send the IDF and IAF’s capabilities “back to their status in the 1970s Suez years,” according to a source present at the meeting.

“With the S-300, we are talking about relatively cheap missiles – but no less deadly,” Yadlin cautioned during his foreboding address to the committee. In addition, he said, the Russians are upgrading older Syrian weapons systems to make them far more advanced.

In outlining how the weapons deal benefited Damascus, the MI chief said the Syrians are conducting “intense efforts to acquire extremely advanced weapons – so advanced that everything just off of the production line in Russia ends up in Syria.”

Yadlin also disclosed that Israel had detected the Iranians laying the groundwork for two new nuclear sites – but did not reveal their locations.

“Iran is the greatest threat to Israel and to the well-being of the entire region,” he said.

And in an ominous note, Yadlin informed the committee that Iran already had enough uranium enriched to 20 percent to make one nuclear bomb – and before long, enough for two nuclear devices.

“Iran’s progression towards a bomb is slower than they had hoped for,” advised the general. “They are running into quite a few problems. But Iran is also taking radical action regarding the transfer of money, technology, weapons and intelligence.”

Yadlin pointed out that with 3,000 to 4,000 centrifuges in operation, Iran could very easily make the leap from civilian-grade enriched uranium to the higher enrichment required for building a nuclear explosive device.

If Yadlin told the Knesset anything about the likelihood that the Obama administration would support Israel in the event of a future war, it hasn’t been reported. Still, his assessment is quite depressing even without that detail.